Year 2009, turned out to be much better than expected for India as a whole. The economy is looking in a better shape, stock markets are giving stupendous returns, people are talking about India overtaking China in a few years time.
This is a good time to introspect and look at how 2010 will fare for India.
I would begin with a very cautious note. The best way to find out if India will do well in 2010 is to go to the grass root level and find how the average Indian is doing. There has been a deficient rainfall this year. To compound this, the rainfall was delayed and hence did more harm than any good. So the farmers are not in a good mood. The scanty rainfall has given rise to huge increase in the food grain prices, with some of them having witnessed a 100% rise in a span of 6 months. So the “aam admi” is also not happy. The economy has started picking implies that the working class would not have witnessed a hike in his pay this year and hence he has had to bear the brunt of all this.
To top it all the government was not seen to be doing anything. The expectations that were built up after the clean mandate the UPA received in the elections seem to be misplaced, with not one clear policy that has seen the light of the day.
It seems people have stopped being pragmatic and take a stock of the situation. Rather they have learnt to ignore the uncomfortable aspects. The stock market is going up, but why? Is it the India money that is driving it higher? Is the overseas money that seems to be pouring in based more on the liquidity currently there? What has given rise to such liquidity? What will happen when the stimulus plans start getting withdrawn in USA and other European countries? Is India really decoupled from the rest of the world? Then why did we go from 21000 to 7000 on sensex?
I feel the 2010 lies as much in the hands of Government as in the hands of the industry. It is high time the government started moderating the growth that is happening more due to the stimulus package and the external funds than due to internal growth. It will help to be in tune with the world rather than be 2 steps ahead and then stumble.
